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Eurobarometer最新有關歐盟人民對歐盟信任度的調查顯示,比較2007年5月和2012年11月--亦即金融海嘯前後,歐盟六大國的國民對歐盟的信任度都急瀉,原本只有最疑歐的英國,信任度淨值是負數,但如今西歐另外四大國都出現負值,只有波蘭勉強維持正值。(見上圖)
淨值急跌,可以想像,各國國民對歐盟的信任度大跌:
不信任度曾大增:
金融海嘯,窮國的人民覺得歐盟強逼他們加稅減福利,富國的人民覺得歐盟強逼他們出資救助窮國,結果歐盟豬八戒照鏡。其中,西班牙由最受惠於加入歐盟變成現在經濟情況最受歐元泡沫影響的國家,天堂與地獄,因此信任度變幅之巨,可以想像,甚至較英國更疑歐。
歐洲外交理事會對調查結果作出分析,其有幾句想節錄:
"The old explanation for Euroscepticism was the alleged existence of a democratic deficit within the EU. Decisions, critics said, were taken by unaccountable institutions rather than elected national governments. But the current crisis is born not of a clash between Brussels and the member states but a clash between the democratic wills of citizens in northern and southern Europe, the so-called centre and periphery"
"In a fully-functioning national political system, political parties would be able to voice these different perspectives – and hopefully act as a referee and find common ground between them. But that is precisely what the European political system cannot deliver: because it lacks true political parties, a proper government and a public sphere, the EU cannot compensate the failures of national democracies. Instead of a battle of ideas, the EU has been marred by a vicious circle between anti-EU populism and technocratic agreements between member states that are afraid of their citizens."
上述,跟我之前說歐盟各國人民欠缺一種「命運共同體」的說法類似。正如上面引文所說,在歐盟層面的政策決定,仍停留在技術官僚/外交官僚式的討論,多於真正的意念交鋒。令問題惡化的是,歐盟成員國政府的政客遇到自己有份作出、但選民不喜歡的決定,很喜歡把責任推在歐盟層面的決策過程,推說是因為其他國家所逼,將怨氣由自己及成員國政府/政界層面,推至歐盟的層面。
至於上述反歐民粹及害怕民意的技術協議之間的惡性循環,其實不止於金融危機後的歐債問題,早在2005年法國和荷蘭否決了歐盟憲法便已開始,《里斯本條約》便是害怕民意的技術協議的一例。
現在歐盟面對2個死胡同:1、改革歐盟層面的政策決定,令這個過程不止於外交/技術官僚的討論,但這就牽涉歐盟條約的大手術,包括進一步向歐盟上繳權力,而這又因為歐洲人沒有一種「命運共同體」的想法而卡住;2、如果沒有「命運共同體」的想法,那麼,把歐盟的權力下放回成員國政府,可行嗎?儘管疑歐政黨冒起,但他們的主張又未有一套是可行,令歐洲人及知識份子信服,可以解決歐債危機,以及令歐洲國家能與中美平起平坐。
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